By Adeyemi Adekunle
Donald Trump’s victory in his second bid for the U.S. presidency has elicited a complex response from Africa’s leaders, diplomats, and international relations experts. Trump’s foreign policy has always been a departure from his predecessors’ and, in many ways, a challenge to the norms of U.S.-Africa relations.
As he reclaims the White House, African leaders, civil society groups, and everyday citizens are left to ponder what this new era will mean for their futures. From trade deals to aid programs, security cooperation, and the continent’s relations with China and Russia, Africa faces both uncertainty and opportunity.
With an “America First” approach likely to remain at the core of Trump’s foreign policy, how will Africa navigate the potential shifts in its relationship with the United States? This article examines the anticipated impact on trade, aid, security, and geopolitical alignments, as well as the perspectives of African leaders and citizens on Trump’s unexpected return to power.
Historical Context: Trump’s First Term and Its Impacts on Africa
When Donald Trump assumed office in 2017, he made it clear that he would prioritize U.S. interests, even at the cost of traditional alliances and long-standing aid commitments. This approach created notable shifts in U.S.-Africa relations, as Trump cut funding for numerous development programs, reevaluated trade agreements, and focused on containing the influence of China on the continent.
In his first term, Trump’s administration saw Africa primarily through a security and economic lens, emphasizing counterterrorism and expressing concerns over China’s increasing presence. While previous presidents had viewed the continent as a partner in humanitarian development and diplomacy, Trump’s approach often seemed transactional. His administration reduced foreign aid budgets, signaling to African leaders that they could no longer rely on the U.S. as they had in the past. For instance, proposed cuts to the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) — a signature U.S. health initiative — raised concerns among health advocates across Africa, especially given the program’s significant role in addressing the HIV/AIDS epidemic.
African leaders and policy experts began recalibrating their expectations. As the U.S. minimized direct engagement, countries such as Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya diversified their international partnerships, forging closer economic and security ties with countries like China and Russia. Trump’s limited engagement, combined with occasional disparaging remarks, fostered a sense of caution among African leaders regarding future U.S.-Africa relations. Now, as Trump returns for a second term, many are bracing for similar dynamics but also preparing to leverage new opportunities within a changing global order.
Aid and Development: Shifting Priorities
Trump’s first term highlighted his philosophy of “America First” in the realm of foreign aid. African nations received fewer financial commitments, and Trump encouraged African leaders to focus on self-reliance and attract private investment rather than depend on aid. With his re-election, there’s a strong likelihood that foreign assistance will continue to shrink, potentially reshaping Africa’s approach to development.
One of the most significant effects of reduced U.S. aid could be felt in the health sector. Programs like PEPFAR and support from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have played pivotal roles in combatting health crises across Africa. If funding cuts continue, African governments may need to search for alternative sources of support, either through regional alliances or partnerships with non-U.S. donors.
While Trump’s administration has expressed interest in private sector investment, critics argue that many African countries lack the necessary infrastructure and governance systems to attract large-scale investments without governmental aid. For these nations, a reduction in traditional aid could hamper efforts to improve education, healthcare, and infrastructure, exacerbating existing socio-economic challenges. Some African leaders are therefore considering self-funded initiatives or diversifying partnerships with European and Asian nations to fill potential gaps.
Economic Relations: Trade, Investment, and Business
Although Trump’s foreign policy has rarely focused on Africa, trade relations remain an area of mutual interest. During his first term, the Trump administration renewed the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides African nations duty-free access to U.S. markets. Trump also promoted the Prosper Africa initiative, designed to stimulate U.S.-Africa trade and investment. However, his emphasis on “reciprocal” trade agreements and fair trade has raised concerns among African exporters who fear that AGOA could face additional restrictions.
Under a renewed Trump presidency, the future of U.S.-Africa trade may hinge on the continent’s alignment with U.S. economic interests. Trump’s administration has tended to prioritize bilateral agreements over multilateral ones, which may result in a push for one-on-one trade deals that could favor the U.S. In contrast to AGOA’s preferential market access, these agreements could demand reciprocal concessions that African countries may struggle to meet. Some analysts worry that such deals might ultimately disadvantage smaller African economies.
While Prosper Africa was meant to increase business engagement, its success has been modest, with fewer tangible outcomes compared to earlier development-focused initiatives. Still, Africa’s largest economies, including Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa, could benefit from increased investment under Trump if they can align their interests with U.S. objectives. However, smaller and more vulnerable economies may see less benefit unless they are able to adapt to new trade dynamics.
Security and Counterterrorism: Continuity or Change?
Security cooperation, particularly in counterterrorism, has been one area where Trump’s policies aligned closely with Africa’s needs. During his first term, Trump’s administration supported African nations in fighting extremist groups such as Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, and ISIS-affiliated insurgencies in the Sahel. U.S. military support, funding, and intelligence sharing have been vital for regional stability.
With Trump’s re-election, African leaders hope that these collaborations will continue, especially as extremist groups remain active in West and East Africa. However, Trump’s broader stance on foreign policy, which often includes reducing U.S. military presence abroad, raises questions about the sustainability of these partnerships. His administration’s past decisions to withdraw troops from conflict zones like Syria and Afghanistan suggest that a similar approach could be applied in Africa, potentially leaving regional forces more vulnerable.
If Trump reduces the U.S. footprint in Africa, regional organizations, such as the African Union (AU), may need to fill the security vacuum. African leaders may also seek additional security support from European allies and explore partnerships with nations that have shown a willingness to engage in Africa’s security affairs, such as China and Russia.
China, Russia, and Africa: A Triangle of Influence
Africa’s relations with China and Russia are likely to become increasingly complex under Trump’s re-election. Both China and Russia have deepened their ties with Africa, focusing on investments, infrastructure, and military cooperation. Trump’s hardline stance against China could put African countries that benefit from Chinese investment in a challenging position.
China has been Africa’s largest trading partner since 2009, investing heavily in infrastructure projects across the continent. Trump’s concerns about China’s influence have already led to a strategic rivalry in Africa, with the U.S. offering alternatives like Prosper Africa to counterbalance Chinese investments. Yet, African nations may find themselves pressured to choose sides as U.S.-China tensions escalate.
Russia, meanwhile, has established itself as a key player in Africa’s arms trade and energy sector. Trump’s focus on countering Russian influence may lead to increased scrutiny of Africa-Russia relationships. For African leaders, the challenge will be to navigate their ties with these superpowers while ensuring that their partnerships serve national interests without compromising their sovereignty.
Human Rights and Governance: A Divergence of Values?
Trump’s foreign policy rarely emphasizes human rights or governance issues, which could have mixed implications for Africa. While some African leaders may welcome reduced pressure on domestic governance issues, others worry that this approach could embolden authoritarian regimes.
Under Trump’s previous tenure, his administration refrained from interfering in African countries’ internal politics, focusing instead on issues that served U.S. strategic interests. With limited diplomatic pressure from Washington, countries facing scrutiny over human rights abuses may find greater freedom to act domestically. However, human rights organizations and civil society advocates in Africa are concerned that this leniency may lead to increased repression and a decline in governance standards.
African Voices: Perspectives from the Continent
For many Africans, Trump’s re-election prompts a mixture of concern and pragmatism. Some leaders, particularly in countries with large economies, view the situation as an opportunity to strengthen bilateral trade and attract private investment. Others fear a reduction in development aid and the potential loss of long-standing diplomatic support.
Youth activists and civil society leaders, who have been vocal about issues like democracy, governance, and climate change, express skepticism about Trump’s impact on these areas. Nevertheless, many African citizens are preparing to adapt, emphasizing the need for greater continental self-reliance and diversification of partnerships with other global powers.
Navigating the Road Ahead
Africa faces a pivotal moment as it adapts to Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency. With U.S.-Africa relations potentially shifting toward a more transactional and less aid-dependent model, African leaders have an opportunity to redefine their international relations strategy. Moving forward, resilience and strategic partnerships will be essential as Africa seeks to navigate a global order increasingly marked by geopolitical rivalry.
In the face of these challenges, Africa’s response will require a unified front through institutions like the African Union, as well as the cultivation of diverse alliances. Whether Trump’s second term presents obstacles or opportunities, one thing is clear: Africa’s international relations strategy must adapt to a rapidly changing global landscape.
