By Adeyemi Adekunle
Within a bustling market in the heart of Abuja, traders set up their stalls, selling everything from vibrant fabrics to fresh produce. Among them is 45-year-old Fatima Ibrahim, who relies on her husband’s income from the oil sector to support their family.
As she expertly arranges her wares, her expression reflects a mix of determination and concern. “We’ve always relied on oil,” she says, her voice tinged with apprehension.
But with recent findings from the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) revealing a steep decline in oil revenues, she wonders how long her family’s stability can endure.
The NEITI report, highlighted during a crucial workshop in Abuja, paints a daunting picture of Nigeria’s economic future, particularly for those whose livelihoods depend on the volatile oil market. Dr. Orji Ogbonnaya Orji, NEITI’s Executive Secretary, expressed grave concerns about the ongoing energy transition towards cleaner sources, forecasting a 15% decline in oil and gas revenue from 2022 to 2023. The implications are profound—not just for government finances, but for families like Fatima’s.
“This transition is not just a policy issue; it’s a family issue,” says Dr. Orji, recognizing how deeply interconnected the oil industry is with the daily lives of ordinary Nigerians. With every misstep in managing the shift towards renewable energy, it is the grassroots that will feel the tremors.
That’s why NEITI is urging the Nigerian government to expedite reforms in the extractive sector and diversify the economy. “We must act now, or face dire consequences,” Dr. Orji warns, underscoring an urgent call to action.
Amb. Adoli Mathew, Alternate Chair of NEITI’s National Stakeholders Working Group, adds depth to this discussion. He emphasizes that the global pivot away from fossil fuels is not just a trend; it’s a reality that will reshape markets and policies. “It’s not about whether we should transition or not. It’s about how we do it responsibly,” he insists. For communities like Fatima’s, the fear of an uncertain future looms large. “What if oil prices crash further? What will happen to us then?” she questions.
The implications of this transition reach far beyond economic numbers. Dr. Erisa Danladi, a civil society representative on the NEITI board, sheds light on the socio-economic ramifications. “While this transition will bring opportunities for innovation, we must safeguard against revenue instability and ensure energy access for the most vulnerable populations,” she explains. For Fatima and many others in oil-reliant communities, energy access is not a luxury; it is a necessity for survival.
As conversations around diversification and innovation unfold at NEITI workshops, the urgency for community engagement has never been more apparent. Dr. Danladi emphasizes the necessity of grounding these discussions in robust research that reflects the realities of those most affected. “We can’t overlook the voices of those who are living this every day,” she suggests, a sentiment echoed by Fatima, who feels unseen in these larger policy discussions.
Meanwhile, Dr. Friday Ohuche leads the charge in preparing a comprehensive study on Nigeria’s energy transition. Set for completion next year, its findings could guide not only national policy but also serve as a benchmark for other resource-rich nations grappling with similar challenges.
At her stall, as dusk settles over the market, Fatima bags up groceries for a customer, her resolve still shining through the uncertainty surrounding her. “Whatever comes, I will find a way,” she insists, embodying the resilience of countless Nigerians facing the turbulent tides of an energy transition. For families intertwined with the oil economy, the stakes are high, and the fight for economic survival has only just begun.
