By Adeyemi Adekunle
Conservative leader Friedrich Merz has declared victory after his Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) alliance secured nearly 29 percent of the vote in Germany’s federal election, emerging as the strongest political force. However, with no party securing an outright majority, Merz faces the challenge of navigating a fractured and polarized electorate.
“This country cannot afford prolonged coalition negotiations,” Merz stated in his victory speech, emphasizing the need for swift governance. But critics argue that rather than unifying Germany, his hardline policies, particularly on immigration, could deepen divisions.
The election results underscore Germany’s shifting political landscape, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) securing 20.8 percent of the vote—its best-ever result in a federal election. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a historic defeat, dropping to 16.4 percent, its worst performance since 1949.
The Green Party, led by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, came in fourth with 11.6 percent, while the Left Party gained 8.8 percent, up by 3.9 percentage points from the last election.
Political activist Mahmud Abu-Odeh describes this parliament as “one of the most right-wing in Germany’s history.” He argues that mainstream parties, including the CDU, have adopted rhetoric that mirrors the AfD’s, particularly on migration and security.
“The CDU wants to stay in power by tapping into anti-migrant sentiment,” he told TRT World. “Instead of countering the AfD’s influence, they are fueling it.”
Despite his party’s electoral success, Merz remains an unpopular candidate for chancellor. A recent Ipsos poll found that only 21 percent of men and 15 percent of women consider him suitable for the role, with his support among young voters even lower at 13 percent.
Unlike his predecessor Angela Merkel, who was known for pragmatic and consensus-driven leadership, Merz has built his political brand on confrontation. His anti-immigration stance and economic policies favoring businesses have made him a divisive figure.
“He is not a politician who builds bridges,” Abu-Odeh said. “He plays on divisions to strengthen his position.”
With 208 seats in the Bundestag, the CDU/CSU must form a coalition to govern, as a majority requires at least 316 seats. A partnership with the SPD would secure a majority with 328 seats, while a three-way coalition with the Greens would result in a more comfortable 413-seat majority.
However, coalition talks are expected to be challenging, particularly due to Merz’s controversial positions. His proposal of anti-immigration legislation in parliament earlier this year—hoping to pass it with AfD support—sparked massive protests. Though he later distanced himself from the AfD, the move damaged his credibility among centrist and progressive voters.
The AfD’s strong performance in this election has set off alarm bells across Germany. The party, known for its anti-immigrant, nationalist, and far-right rhetoric, nearly doubled its vote share from the previous election.
While Merz insists the CDU will not collaborate with the AfD, critics remain skeptical. His attempt to pass an anti-immigration bill with their support suggests otherwise, and there is concern that his government may indirectly legitimize far-right narratives.
“Merz presents himself as a conservative, not an extremist, but his policies play into the hands of the far right,” Abu-Odeh said.
Merz has made economic reform a key focus, blaming the current coalition government for Germany’s economic slowdown. He proposes lowering corporate taxes, cutting bureaucracy, and ensuring affordable energy** to boost investment and growth.
However, there is concern that his policies will come at the expense of workers and social programs. “He is likely to weaken labor protections and reduce social benefits,” Abu-Odeh warned.
His tenure as chairman of BlackRock Germany from 2016 to 2020 has further fueled skepticism. Critics argue that his close ties to multinational corporations suggest he may prioritize corporate interests over public welfare.
Merz has also positioned himself as a strong supporter of Israel, calling it part of Germany’s “reason of state.” He has promised to lift the de facto arms export restrictions on Israel imposed by the current government, a move likely to deepen tensions over Germany’s stance on Middle Eastern conflicts.
Abu-Odeh warns that Merz’s administration could suppress pro-Palestinian activism under the pretext of fighting anti-Semitism, a trend already observed in Germany’s political landscape.
As Germany grapples with rising far-right influence, economic uncertainty, and social division, Friedrich Merz’s leadership will be tested. Will he unify the country, or will his hardline policies further polarize it?
With coalition talks set to begin, the path forward remains uncertain. But one thing is clear: Germany’s political landscape is changing, and the coming months will shape its future direction.
